A prominent Muganda business and political strategists in the USA believes that the relentless bashing of Beti Kamya by Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) top brass has been what he called a “power windfall” for Beti Kamya. What is not clear is whether she realizes it and can turn it into a ‘game changer’, at least in Buganda. The analyst told this reporter by email that  Besigye, Musumba and Ogutu totally misread the current psyche of Baganda when they adopted a strategy to isolate, demonize and then discard Beti Kamya. Baganda, both at home and overseas are upset that Besigye and his cabal have copied Museveni in taking Buganda for granted, abusing their leaders. And, there is a huge opportunity for Beti Kamya and friends to “leverage” the situation and change the face of politics in Buganda forever.

For more than three months Beti Kamya has been locked in a public battle with Besigye and other FDC leaders over her resignation from the party’s leadership. Besigye, Ogutu, Anne Mugisha, Salam Musumba and even Sam Njuba have used their influence in the Aga Khan owned newspaper to plant scores of negative stories about Kamya. The government owned New Vision has taken advantage of the situation to publish stories that, in their thinking, weaken both Kamya and the FDC. For the time being, Kamya has the upper hand though, since, due her popularity among Baganda, the FDC has even failed to organize branch elections in Buganda – no one is willing to stand for office.

The Muganda strategist says: “Conscious Baganda in the disapora are quite upset with FDC because many of them believe that, with Beti’s commitment to the kingdom, solid political support in Buganda and overseas, maturity and industry experience, she is a top contender for the position of Katikkiro. Most of the Baganda here in the USA in fact don’t know or care about Musumba and Ogutu. However in the USA, Canada and Europe, Beti is a star, especially after her stellar performance at Ttabamiruka ’08. In fact many of Beti’s supporters are very frustrated that she is still publicly arguing with Besigye over the FDC carcass. As that keeps her down there in the gutters of Uganda politics with Besigye, which makes her difficult to approach.

“A serious problem I see is that, like Nambooze, Kyanjo and Ssegona, Beti is unable to capitalize on the enormous amount of moral and material support available overseas. It appears that they are always too busy arguing with gutter people like Kayihura, Besigye or their top boss to maintain steady relationships with their supporters in London or Boston. They should take a page from the Ugandan Balokole pastors who smartly divide their time between local preaching and packaging themselves to meet the expectations of Christians and potential donor in London or California. I don’t know why they think that we  ‘understand’ the situation in Buganda and so they don’t need to market themselves to us in the language and style we understand. Yet Museveni is marketing himself daily in his New vision and Bukedde and Besigye and Oguttu are doing the same with Monitor.”

Beti Kamya was one of the main speakers at Ttabamiruka ‘08, the Baganda annual conference, which was held in New Jersey, USA at the end of August 2008. Along with Hussein Kyanjo and Katikkiro Muliika, Beti’s paper on Baganda’s political and civil rights was very well received. However, Beti got the strongest reaction from the Baganda youths aged 10 – 30 years, for whom she conducted a special 4 hour seminar on Buganda political and human rights.

Kampala Mayor and convicted money launderer, Nasser Sebaggala, has declared  “war” on Betty Nambooze, for what he claimed to be her disrespectful behavior towards him. Nambooze was the moderator of a Democratic Party leadership meeting that sat at Christ the King church conference hall. Problems started when, before the first item on the agenda was touched,  Sebaggala demanded that Nambooze give him the microphone to address the meeting because he had to rush to another meeting.  Nambooze resisted what was apparent indiscipline on the part of Mayor Sebaggala, explaining that the conference should follow the agenda and all speakers should contribute in the pre-determined order, to maintain  a sense or organization.

In a move that did not surprise those familiar with the current state of in the DP, President General Ssebaana Kizito and Secretary General Mathias Nsubuga openly disagreed with Nambooze’s call for discipline and order behavior. Indeed the added to the chaos when Nsubuga, with cheering from Ssebaana Kizito, grabbed the microphone from the speaker who had the floor and gave it to Sebaggala.

Sources in DP have told this reporter that the events at Christ the King are only symptoms of the high tension in the party between the “Buganda” wing and the “Uganda” wing. People like Nambooze and Lukwago are in the Buganda wing and they are highly suspected to be putting Buganda first and the party second.  For example when Nambooze gained freedom from captivity after Mr. Museveni ordered his kidnap, chose to suspend her DP activities for a couple of months but kept speaking for Buganda even while in the hospital.  Nambooze also works closely with other Buganda champions from other parties, like Daudi Mpanga (Independent), Beti Kamya (FDC), Hussein Kyanjo (Jeema), Lubega Sseggona (Independent), Kaddu Mukasa (Independent), etc. Overall, these people are not corrupt and are highly popular in Buganda.

According to the sources, the DP old-guard like Ssebaana and Sebaggala are scared that the focus that young Baganda in DP are putting on Mmengo and Buganda, is making them irrelevant.  To them, the popularity that Nambooze, Lukwago their colleagues enjoy  in Kampala and Buganda is undermining DP in other areas.

The mistreatment of Nambooze by Sebaggala and Ssebaana comes at a time when Kiiza Besigye’s Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) is also in a miserable campaign to discredit Lubaga North MP, Beti Kamya, apparently for committing the same crime as Nambooze – putting Buganda first. Beti has already publicly declared her intention to make respect for Buganda’s interests the litmus test for any politician who wants to engage the new generation of Baganda.  Conventional wisdom in Buganda is that FDC is all but dead in Buganda because, at this time, Besigye and his team are still holding on to the illusion that they are the future saviors of Kabaka Mutebi’s people.

In June 2008 I asked one of Buganda’s best strategic thinkers today the following question: “Given how things work with African, how can Buganda be taken seriously when it does not have an army?”. He gave me a reply that left me with mixed feelings of confusion and curiosity. He said, “You are mistaken. Buganda has an army, more disciplined and ready than Museveni’s UPDF or presidential guard (PGB). They are trained, they understand Buganda’s enemies from the inside and they are angry. The only missing piece is a serious Katikkiro to show them direction.”

After three months of investigation, it appears that former professor’s analysis was right on the money.  Actually a huge majority of Baganda in Museveni’s UPDF can convert to Buganda Defense Forces (BDF) overnight without much persuasion. Because the UPDF is not a professional army, the Baganda in it have received some of the best training but face excessive discrimination and most of them, like other Baganda youths, are very loyal to Kabaka. They are frustrated and, when Museveni’s system starts crumbling, they are willing to fight for a new order where Buganda is free to decide her future. And, after the Museveni nightmare, they are unwilling to follow the leadership of another smooth talking non-Muganda commander. Besigye is seen as no different than Museveni.

Probably the most educative source of information during my investigation was the series of interviews that I had with an active senior Muganda UPDF officer and close family friend. He explained that the UPDF is not a professional army, say like Kenya’s, because Museveni intentionally structured it to avoid a military coup. “And he succeeded because we do not have officer messes, a modern commissary, sports clubs or other things where officers or men can get to know and trust each other and their commanders. There is a total lack of trust among officers and men, made worse by the excessive tribalism and corruption by westerners and Banyarwanda who are mostly interested in stealing money and running businesses. That is why you can see a 25 year old Second Lieutenant from Nyabushozi with a huge house and several cars while a Colonel from Buganda or the North travels by boda boda.”  A military coup is nearly impossible because there is no real command-and-control in the UPDF and many important decisions are based on rumors and even advice from witch doctors.

The senior UPDF officers revealed that even Museveni is not sure of the UPDF force size because he has allowed the enlistment of ghost soldiers and foreigners for so many years. However, the officer  estimated that if one counts both active and retired combatants the effective number is about 100,000, with at least 20,000 of them being Baganda proper.  And there are many quality Baganda commissioned and non-commissioned officers since “most of us don’t have the opportunities to be corrupt and try to advance through training while most westerners think that it interrupts with their business activities.” Apparently there are also thousands of Baganda veterans who have served under a command and who would be ready to contribute when activated. Many of these, now taxis drivers, boda boda drivers, market vendors and artisans are very bitter about the way Museveni and his people have cheated Buganda and mistreated Kabaka Mutebi.

On who would command the so called Buganda Defense Forces or BDF, the senior military man said: “It is much simpler than you think. These nearly 10,000 or so Baganda fighters would follow any Muganda who has charisma so long as it is clear that the individual is loyal to Kabaka and has Buganda’s interest at heart. Baganda in the UPDF found out much earlier than the rest of you that Uganda is a failed state, after Museveni could not guarantee them salaries. We just don’t know what to do when Mmengo is as corrupt as Nakasero. If there is a Katikkiro who is 100% loyal to Kabaka and has the brains to understand the situation as well as show capacity to be a commander, we can do the rest. Buganda is our only home and the rest of the UPDF is too disorganized to be a problem for us. Also remember that our friends from Acholi, Busoga, Teso or Lango now know that despite the current corruption and cowardice in Mmengo ordinary Baganda are no longer cowards.”

The military veteran, who aspires to retire in the BDF, made one other interesting observation: “Remember that a band of Banyarwanda, who had a strong cause, took NRA equipment 400 Kms to hostile Hutu-led Rwanda and took power. Why should better trained Baganda who are already in very friendly home territory equipped with Ugandan arms stockpiles in Kyadondo, Busiro, Buddu, Buwekula and Buluuli and Bulemeezi not have it even easier. You see, as Uganda continues to fail, our cause to save Buganda and to never allow outsiders to terrorize us becomes stronger. The only thing missing is a leader in Mmengo who has the natural intelligence and patriotism of Muliika as well as the sophistication to assure Buganda that he is 100% obedient to Kabaka. If such serious leadership exists under Kabaka when things start to fall apart Okwonko style, a new BDF could take shape overnight and bring immediate order in the 18 counties of Buganda.”