President Museveni’s propaganda team were wise to bar all Uganda TV stations from broadcasting the proceedings at the NRM’s independence day celebrations on October 9, 2009 at Kololo Airstrip.  That is because, this year’s ceremony saw the smallest crowd of ordinary Ugandans in the 47 years since the British granted independence to Uganda on October 9, 2009. Leaving out the many security or government officials and about 60 boda boda’s, approximately 900 ordinary people attended. Notably, even with this small crowd, the majority wore yellow NRM party tee shirts which were given out free in poor areas to entice people to come to the event.

Conspicuously absent were foreign dignitaries from Libya and neighboring countries. Even the so called cultural leaders, who Museveni supports financially, stayed home – Omukama of Toro, Omukama of Bunyoro, Kyabazinga of Busoga, Omorimor of Teso and Rwot of Acholi. The only non-government VIPs present were a few diplomats accredited to Uganda, junior officials from Kenya, Tanzania and Southern Sudan plus Mr. Museveni’s own Ssabaluri Mwogeza Butamanya (coincidentally, it literally translates to  ”the one who speaks with ignorance”) and Sabanyala Kimeze.

State House Panic and Propaganda Plan

On October 7, 2009, Mr. Museveni’s statehouse received reliable information that over 10,000 people had greeted Kabaka Mutebi in Mityana (Ssingo county), on his way to the Buganda independence event in Mubende, Buwekula county. They knew right away that Kabaka’s crowds could embarrass Museveni at the Uganda independence celebrations on the 9th. So, they turned their attention to controlling the news about Kabaka Mutebi’s activities.

According to our sources in Mr. Meseveni’s ISO, the plan which was hatched by Tamale Mirundi, Robert Kobushenga, Kabakumba Matsiko and a certain Mafabi included 5 main elements: (a) Minimize the crowd in any pictures of Kabaka Mutebi’s crowds if shown in government newspapers. (b) Use physical barriers to force the crowd at Kololo into a relatively small but longish area just below Upper Kololo Terrace road so that the numbers can look big in photos taken from a low angle; (c) Have Mr. Museveni enter the ceremonies through the crowd area, so that we can take photos showing many people around the president, (d) force all major media outlets to broadcast the events at Kololo, using a single audio/video feed from the government’s Uganda Broadcasting Corporation (UBC), and (e) strengthen enforcement of the rules which Godfrey Mutabazi had placed on radio stations, barring any praise of Kabaka or Buganda.

The Monitor Does Not Cooperate

On October 8 and 9, New Vision and Bukedde reported on Kabaka’s tour of Buwekula but omitted any mention of Buganda Independence celebrations, only referring to bulungi bwa nsi (national service) but without translating it to English. Also, they have avoided any picture which show the huge crowds that the Kabaka attracted in Mubende or Mityana. The crowd at the main Mubende celebrations was approximately 25,000 people.

In a sign that the Aga Khan’s The Monitor newspaper editors may be starting to rethink their anti-Buganda sentiments, they defied Museveni and published a photo showing Kabaka Mutebi with thousands of his subjects jubilating around him. Furthermore, they published parts of the Kabaka’s tough “47 Years Wasted” speech, although with incorrect translation in some parts (see “Kabaka Mutebi Disowns Katikkiro’s Apologetic Tone“).

Ghost NRM Independence Day Celebrations

On October 9, Mr. Museveni’s worst fears came to pass. Despite the efforts of his propaganda people, the 900 or so crowd was to small for anyone to ignore. However, state house forced WBS TV, NTV, and NBS to suspend regularly scheduled programming and transmit the UBC TV feed from Kololo live for over 5 hours. And the UBC camera were continuously glued on the marching troops and the VIPs, skipping the miserable crowd. And in a sign that Museveni is losing confidence, he gave his shortest independence day speech ever even though the event lasted from 10:00AM to 3:30 AM.

Uncharacteristically, Museveni read his independence day speech strictly from the script, without any of his trademark long strays to abuse or threaten Baganda, aid donors and others. Also, although he had been fully briefed about Kabaka Mutebi’s statement that Buganda has gained nothing out of 47 years of independence, the Uganda warlord did not mention the subject at all (see “Kabaka Mutebi Disowns Katikkiro’s Apologetic Tone“).

Museveni’s speech included nothing he has not said over the last few years.

• He boasted of his record on education and raised eyebrows when he interpreted the rampant unemployment in Uganda as a sign of his successes, saying: “We no longer have to be frustrated by these people who don’t want to work. You find a problem person somewhere, you act, get rid of that person and get another one because they are many here now.”
• He pledged, as he has done numerous since 1986, that he will fight corruption. But immediately warned that the war on corruption, which is now much worse now than in 1986, will not be won overnight but through a protracted struggle. This time, he spared judges and the police and blamed accountants, auditors and accounting officers for the persistent corruption. However, he promised his outwardly bored audience that he has new army of young “clean” accountants and auditor to lead the war on graft. He did not mention where the got their education or earned their professional experience.
• He made the “obvious” observation that recent oil discoveries would increase self-reliance and make Uganda less dependent on foreign aid.
• Mr. Museveni (once again) revealed that problem of theft of drugs is a serious problem in the health sector. He did not mention the status of the corruption charges against his ministers and NRM stalwarts Michael Mukula and Jim Muwhezi.

Museveni’s Colonel’s on Empty Stomachs

The otherwise dull event could not end without typical Ugandan breakdown. The man in charge of the parade at the very long ceremonies, UPDF’s Col. Peter Ekweru, fainted and fell on his face due to hunger and exhaustion. Sources could not confirm how a whole colonel could command an important national parade on a empty stomach.

In June 2008 I asked one of Buganda’s best strategic thinkers today the following question: “Given how things work with African, how can Buganda be taken seriously when it does not have an army?”. He gave me a reply that left me with mixed feelings of confusion and curiosity. He said, “You are mistaken. Buganda has an army, more disciplined and ready than Museveni’s UPDF or presidential guard (PGB). They are trained, they understand Buganda’s enemies from the inside and they are angry. The only missing piece is a serious Katikkiro to show them direction.”

After three months of investigation, it appears that former professor’s analysis was right on the money.  Actually a huge majority of Baganda in Museveni’s UPDF can convert to Buganda Defense Forces (BDF) overnight without much persuasion. Because the UPDF is not a professional army, the Baganda in it have received some of the best training but face excessive discrimination and most of them, like other Baganda youths, are very loyal to Kabaka. They are frustrated and, when Museveni’s system starts crumbling, they are willing to fight for a new order where Buganda is free to decide her future. And, after the Museveni nightmare, they are unwilling to follow the leadership of another smooth talking non-Muganda commander. Besigye is seen as no different than Museveni.

Probably the most educative source of information during my investigation was the series of interviews that I had with an active senior Muganda UPDF officer and close family friend. He explained that the UPDF is not a professional army, say like Kenya’s, because Museveni intentionally structured it to avoid a military coup. “And he succeeded because we do not have officer messes, a modern commissary, sports clubs or other things where officers or men can get to know and trust each other and their commanders. There is a total lack of trust among officers and men, made worse by the excessive tribalism and corruption by westerners and Banyarwanda who are mostly interested in stealing money and running businesses. That is why you can see a 25 year old Second Lieutenant from Nyabushozi with a huge house and several cars while a Colonel from Buganda or the North travels by boda boda.”  A military coup is nearly impossible because there is no real command-and-control in the UPDF and many important decisions are based on rumors and even advice from witch doctors.

The senior UPDF officers revealed that even Museveni is not sure of the UPDF force size because he has allowed the enlistment of ghost soldiers and foreigners for so many years. However, the officer  estimated that if one counts both active and retired combatants the effective number is about 100,000, with at least 20,000 of them being Baganda proper.  And there are many quality Baganda commissioned and non-commissioned officers since “most of us don’t have the opportunities to be corrupt and try to advance through training while most westerners think that it interrupts with their business activities.” Apparently there are also thousands of Baganda veterans who have served under a command and who would be ready to contribute when activated. Many of these, now taxis drivers, boda boda drivers, market vendors and artisans are very bitter about the way Museveni and his people have cheated Buganda and mistreated Kabaka Mutebi.

On who would command the so called Buganda Defense Forces or BDF, the senior military man said: “It is much simpler than you think. These nearly 10,000 or so Baganda fighters would follow any Muganda who has charisma so long as it is clear that the individual is loyal to Kabaka and has Buganda’s interest at heart. Baganda in the UPDF found out much earlier than the rest of you that Uganda is a failed state, after Museveni could not guarantee them salaries. We just don’t know what to do when Mmengo is as corrupt as Nakasero. If there is a Katikkiro who is 100% loyal to Kabaka and has the brains to understand the situation as well as show capacity to be a commander, we can do the rest. Buganda is our only home and the rest of the UPDF is too disorganized to be a problem for us. Also remember that our friends from Acholi, Busoga, Teso or Lango now know that despite the current corruption and cowardice in Mmengo ordinary Baganda are no longer cowards.”

The military veteran, who aspires to retire in the BDF, made one other interesting observation: “Remember that a band of Banyarwanda, who had a strong cause, took NRA equipment 400 Kms to hostile Hutu-led Rwanda and took power. Why should better trained Baganda who are already in very friendly home territory equipped with Ugandan arms stockpiles in Kyadondo, Busiro, Buddu, Buwekula and Buluuli and Bulemeezi not have it even easier. You see, as Uganda continues to fail, our cause to save Buganda and to never allow outsiders to terrorize us becomes stronger. The only thing missing is a leader in Mmengo who has the natural intelligence and patriotism of Muliika as well as the sophistication to assure Buganda that he is 100% obedient to Kabaka. If such serious leadership exists under Kabaka when things start to fall apart Okwonko style, a new BDF could take shape overnight and bring immediate order in the 18 counties of Buganda.”