We have learnt from highly reliable sources in  President Museveni state house apparatus that the Ugandan strongman may soon disown the brutal actions of Uganda police against Baganda youths in Kayunga.  According to an email message sent through an intermediary, the source says: “Ugandans are going to be surprised when Mr. Museveni will claim that he only learnt about the problems in Kayunga  on Tuesday or Wednesday. He also intends to attack people who claim that he has anything to do with the threatening letter that his minister Kirunda Kivejinja wrote, warning Kabaka not to go to Kayunga, in Bugerere county.”

Our source could not confirm when Mr. Museveni will make the public statements but speculated that he (Museveni) might do it when he meets MPs who come from Buganda on Thursday or Friday.  As for why Museveni plans to do this the source said: “Museveni has no choice this time. He fully understands that  he underestimated the Kabaka and Baganda on this issue of Bugerere. He also knows that he overestimated the influence that Katikkiro Walusimbi and his supporters still have on Kabaka Mutebi’s decisions. The only option he has, as a military man, is a tactical withdraw. And, based on his past behavior he may blame everything on  Kirunda and [Rwandese police commander]  Kale Kayihura.” The MPs are expected to ask Museveni to explain which his government is blocking Kabaka Mutebi from freely moving in Buganda simply because 22 people demonstrated with sigs that they don’t want him to visit without first consulting their leader, who happens to be an active member of the Uganda army.

In May 2009, the Aga Khan’s The Monitor newspaper printed a Uganda government sponsored story claiming that  Kabaka Mutebi postponed his planned  tour of Kayunga, in Bugerere county, due to fear that Banyala residents might demonstrate against him (see “Kabaka Will Visit Bugerere When Youths Are Home “).  This writer established at the time that the true reason was because Kabaka was traveling to Europe on official duties.  Due to conflict with another tour of Buvuma in July/August, the Bugerere trip was finally rescheduled to start on September 12, 2009.

Since Monday, the Uganda police, under the command of Rwandese refugee Kale Kayihura, has obstructed Baganda youth trying to prepare the site for Kabaka’s main ceremonies at Kayunga. They even fired teargas canisters into the car of  Mengo officials who had gone to Kayunga to oversee  the preparations. The Police also kidnapped Baganda youths who were erecting stalls and held them incommunicado for a day. Earlier, a Musoga minister in Museveni’s government, Kirunda Kivejinja wrote to Mmengo, warning that the Kabaka should not go to Bugerere without the agreement of one Baker Kimeze, the Museveni appointed first king “Bunyala”. Museveni created the pseudo kingdoms of Buruli and Bunyala within Buganda, in direct contradiction of his own Uganda constitution, which does not recognize ‘subkingdoms’ within Buganda.

Despite Museveni’s threats and brutal police actions, Kabaka Mutebi instructed his trusted officials like, David Mpanga, Lubega Ssegona, Betty Nabooze, Kabuuza Mukasa and several others, especially in Nkoba za Mbogo, to spearhead “Operation See You in  Kayunga”.   Through these ‘warriors” Kabaka Mutebi informed his subjects that he was determined to go to Kayunga and not allow a repeat of what happened in Buruli.  According to information from the operational command post, headed by Betty Nambooze,  tens of thousands of Baganda are expected to descend on Kayunga on Saturday, based on contacts with Gombolola and Miruka chiefs across Buganda. President Museveni’s internal security organization has informed their boss of these facts. The main reason why Museveni is backing down is because he has no confidence that his police can handle the situation if they try to stop the Baganda.

In June 2008 I asked one of Buganda’s best strategic thinkers today the following question: “Given how things work with African, how can Buganda be taken seriously when it does not have an army?”. He gave me a reply that left me with mixed feelings of confusion and curiosity. He said, “You are mistaken. Buganda has an army, more disciplined and ready than Museveni’s UPDF or presidential guard (PGB). They are trained, they understand Buganda’s enemies from the inside and they are angry. The only missing piece is a serious Katikkiro to show them direction.”

After three months of investigation, it appears that former professor’s analysis was right on the money.  Actually a huge majority of Baganda in Museveni’s UPDF can convert to Buganda Defense Forces (BDF) overnight without much persuasion. Because the UPDF is not a professional army, the Baganda in it have received some of the best training but face excessive discrimination and most of them, like other Baganda youths, are very loyal to Kabaka. They are frustrated and, when Museveni’s system starts crumbling, they are willing to fight for a new order where Buganda is free to decide her future. And, after the Museveni nightmare, they are unwilling to follow the leadership of another smooth talking non-Muganda commander. Besigye is seen as no different than Museveni.

Probably the most educative source of information during my investigation was the series of interviews that I had with an active senior Muganda UPDF officer and close family friend. He explained that the UPDF is not a professional army, say like Kenya’s, because Museveni intentionally structured it to avoid a military coup. “And he succeeded because we do not have officer messes, a modern commissary, sports clubs or other things where officers or men can get to know and trust each other and their commanders. There is a total lack of trust among officers and men, made worse by the excessive tribalism and corruption by westerners and Banyarwanda who are mostly interested in stealing money and running businesses. That is why you can see a 25 year old Second Lieutenant from Nyabushozi with a huge house and several cars while a Colonel from Buganda or the North travels by boda boda.”  A military coup is nearly impossible because there is no real command-and-control in the UPDF and many important decisions are based on rumors and even advice from witch doctors.

The senior UPDF officers revealed that even Museveni is not sure of the UPDF force size because he has allowed the enlistment of ghost soldiers and foreigners for so many years. However, the officer  estimated that if one counts both active and retired combatants the effective number is about 100,000, with at least 20,000 of them being Baganda proper.  And there are many quality Baganda commissioned and non-commissioned officers since “most of us don’t have the opportunities to be corrupt and try to advance through training while most westerners think that it interrupts with their business activities.” Apparently there are also thousands of Baganda veterans who have served under a command and who would be ready to contribute when activated. Many of these, now taxis drivers, boda boda drivers, market vendors and artisans are very bitter about the way Museveni and his people have cheated Buganda and mistreated Kabaka Mutebi.

On who would command the so called Buganda Defense Forces or BDF, the senior military man said: “It is much simpler than you think. These nearly 10,000 or so Baganda fighters would follow any Muganda who has charisma so long as it is clear that the individual is loyal to Kabaka and has Buganda’s interest at heart. Baganda in the UPDF found out much earlier than the rest of you that Uganda is a failed state, after Museveni could not guarantee them salaries. We just don’t know what to do when Mmengo is as corrupt as Nakasero. If there is a Katikkiro who is 100% loyal to Kabaka and has the brains to understand the situation as well as show capacity to be a commander, we can do the rest. Buganda is our only home and the rest of the UPDF is too disorganized to be a problem for us. Also remember that our friends from Acholi, Busoga, Teso or Lango now know that despite the current corruption and cowardice in Mmengo ordinary Baganda are no longer cowards.”

The military veteran, who aspires to retire in the BDF, made one other interesting observation: “Remember that a band of Banyarwanda, who had a strong cause, took NRA equipment 400 Kms to hostile Hutu-led Rwanda and took power. Why should better trained Baganda who are already in very friendly home territory equipped with Ugandan arms stockpiles in Kyadondo, Busiro, Buddu, Buwekula and Buluuli and Bulemeezi not have it even easier. You see, as Uganda continues to fail, our cause to save Buganda and to never allow outsiders to terrorize us becomes stronger. The only thing missing is a leader in Mmengo who has the natural intelligence and patriotism of Muliika as well as the sophistication to assure Buganda that he is 100% obedient to Kabaka. If such serious leadership exists under Kabaka when things start to fall apart Okwonko style, a new BDF could take shape overnight and bring immediate order in the 18 counties of Buganda.”