For nearly 20 years, the World Bank and western countries that finance the NRM government have ignored the excesses of president Museveni and his cabal and funnelled billions of dollars into Uganda.  Baganda analysts tend to cite corruption and racism within the donor community as the primary reasons why president Museveni and his NRM have had such a successful run. Since 1992 Uganda’s NRM government has depended on foreign aid for 50-60% of its budget (donors usually understate it to avoid embarrassment).  During the same period, Uganda’s rulers and their families have taken advantage of the donor support to invade Congo, steal billions of dollars from the national treasury and murder citizens using illegal militia like Black Mambas.  Using traditional “Mbulira gwoyita naye” logic, many Baganda opinion leaders argue that the corruption in the NRM government is undisputable evidence that their benefactors, the donors, are also corrupt.

Many  Baganda intellectuals also believe that, Uganda’s western foreign donors  think that black Africans do not deserve the same human rights as others. For example, most  European countries do not tolerate use of selective laws to steal property and deny self-determination rights from a distinct European nation like Bosnians or Slovaks or Danes or Latvians.  However, in Uganda, countries like Norway and Denmark aggressively  fund projects like Decentralization and the 1998 Land Act, which are specifically designed to deny Baganda their human rights. This irrationality is leading many Baganda intellectuals to conclude that racism is a major factor in the Uganda donor community’s approach to Museveni.  The theory is also supported by the radically different reaction seen from the western countries when Robert Mugabe applies similarly inhuman policies to whites in Zimbabwe.

In what some Banda observers believe might be a USA led shift in tolerance towards Mr. Museveni in 2010, however, the Western countries appear to be taking some steps to distance themselves from Museveni’s policies.  President Obama sent a strong signal when he refused to grant Mr. Museveni private meeting at the UN Annual Meeting late last year. Last month, the US Congress passed a resolution instructing the State Department to monitor and report  on Uganda 2011 election campaign. Recently, the USA Ambassador to Uganda officially recognized the Kingdom of Buganda when he trekked to Kabaka Mutebi’s Banda palace for an official visit (see “United States Ambassador Listens To Kabaka Mutebi”).

In the latest move by Museveni’s benefactors, a western diplomatic official has leaked a World Bank  statement that threatens the withdraw of funding. It was presented to the NRM government  in a closed door national budget workshop late last month.  The periodic national budget workshops are popularly known as the Uganda’s begging conferences in local circle.

The full text of the leaked World Bank statement is reproduced in full below:

DEVELOPMENT PARTNERS REMARKS
NATIONAL BUDGET WORKSHOP
25-26 February 2010
(As prepared for delivery)
Your Excellency, the President of the Republic of Uganda,
Right Honorable Prime Minister,
Honorable Minister of Finance, Planning and Economic Development,
Honorable Ministers,
Honorable Members of Parliament,
Representatives of civil society organizations and the private sector,
Members of the diplomatic community,
Distinguished participants, Ladies and Gentlemen,

On behalf of the development partners, I wish to thank the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development for organizing this budget workshop.

We recognize that the 2010/11 budget is being developed in tandem with the National Development Plan. This provides an opportunity to focus the budget on Uganda’s development priorities.

Let me take this opportunity to commend the Government of Uganda on its continued macroeconomic achievements.

Sustained economic growth has translated into a significant decline in poverty levels. Moreover, the economy is weathering the impact of the global financial crisis better than anticipated and headline inflation has returned to single digits.

We also welcome the introduction, by the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, of performance based budgeting, quarterly release of funds to spending agencies, and allocation of more resources to monitoring of results.

The Office of the Prime Minister has improved reporting on government performance. This will help to improve accountability. And we congratulate the Government for its efforts to bring peace to Northern Uganda and championing reconstruction of that region.

Your Excellency, past accomplishments by the government of Uganda have been remarkable. However, the real test of prudent and effective government lies in how you will address the challenges of the future.

The vision for Uganda laid out by your Excellency is inspiring and clear: Uganda has to become a middle income country over the next 15 years. Consequently, this statement by development partners has only one theme: what will it take for Uganda to achieve this goal?

There are three challenges that Uganda needs to tackle.
The first challenge: Uganda needs higher economic growth and lower population growth. For Uganda to attain middle income status over the next 15 years, per capita income growth needs to be 6% per year, meaning the economy has to grow at close to 10% per year.

Is this possible? Yes, it is: Thailand had the same GDP per capita as Uganda in 1963; it became a middle income country 18 years later. Indonesia had the same GDP per capita as Uganda in 1978; it became a middle income country 17 years later.

And, Malaysia grew 135% in per capita terms over 20 years from 1960.
These three countries have one common factor: during the period of dramatically rising per capita incomes, fertility rates fell between 40 to 50%.

This is no coincidence. These countries were basically “harvesting the demographic dividend” – the period where falling fertility rates leads to a falling dependency ratio: that means a larger proportion of the population is in their working age, compared to children and the elderly.

At 3.2% growth per year, Uganda has one of the fastest rates of population growth in the world. Uganda’s population is projected to reach 38 million by 2015 and close to 100 million by 2050. This has serious implications for livelihoods, food security, maternal and child mortality, and the environment.

Providing social services such as education and healthcare to a rapidly growing population will put enormous strains on both households and the public purse.

Despite economic growth over the last 20 years, profound inequality in incomes, living standards and life expectancy persist within and across regions. Making economic growth more inclusive should therefore be a priority.

The second challenge: Uganda can only attain middle income status with a healthy and educated labor force.

Uganda needs to accelerate progress towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals for health and education. The NDP states unequivocally that the health and education MDG indicators will only “marginally improve”.

Only slightly more than half of the children that enter primary one, reach primary five. This is well short of the goal that all children, boys and girls alike, should complete a full course of primary education.

In addition, the targets for child and infant mortality and maternal health are also unlikely to be reached and Uganda still has one of the highest rates of maternal mortality in the world.

Building an effective and accountable state is the third crucial challenge Uganda is faced with. The fast growing countries of Asia mentioned earlier are not free of corruption.

But corruption in these countries has not affected the effectiveness of the state to the extent that it affects the Ugandan state. Development partners are particularly concerned about Government failure to take effective action against high level corruption.

A recent example is CHOGM, where there has been minimal follow-up on recommendations in the audit reports, which have been known since 2008.

The PAC hearings have publicized the issues surrounding the leakage and abuse of CHOGM funds. Yet, government administrative action to sanction offenders or recover funds has so far been inadequate.

Your Excellency, corruption in Uganda is endemic and we have seen no signs of improvement. The costs of corruption, stealing and leakages are staggering: $1.6 million lost in the global fund to fight aids, tuberculosis and malaria; $4.6 million lost in the GAVI immunization scam; at least $27 million lost in connection with CHOGM; billions of Shillings lost in the NAADS scam and the NSSF Temangalo scandal; and the loss in procurement corruption is estimated by the PPDA to be more than $100m per year.

However, government effectiveness is not only undermined by corruption. There remain fundamental gaps in public financial and public sector management. Basic rules are not adhered to. Lines of accountability are confused, mandates of central and local governments are not clear.

This has created a fundamental lack of accountability in Government. How else to explain high levels of absenteeism of teachers and health workers estimated at causing losses of up to $70 million per year?

Last but surely not least, only effective and accountable states are able to turn oil into a blessing for a country. Without an effective and accountable government, Uganda could easily become the next African country where oil has become a curse.

Your Excellency, let me now address the concrete steps that can be taken to ensure Uganda becomes a middle income country.

First: government needs to remove the binding constraints to growth and curb population growth. The dual challenge of increased economic growth and rapid job creation requires that the binding constraints on growth, such as poor transport infrastructure and insufficient supply of electricity are tackled.

The increased investments in the transport sector are therefore commendable. However, increased investments should be matched by an equal effort to improve governance and capacity of the sector to ensure that money is well spent.

We would like to urge the government to stick to the time-tested policy of trusting the private sector for implementing major works.

Only a vibrant private sector construction industry will provide Uganda with the roads that are so badly needed. The re-introduction of district force account operations was and still is a bad idea.

The current low level of absorption capacity in the private sector is a result of lack of investments in the past. The private sector will meet the challenges of road construction and maintenance only if investments by the Government are predictable.

Despite the huge increase in spending on road construction and maintenance, the government has yet to put in place a system for monitoring road conditions.

This leaves the sector open to fraud and undermines efforts to achieve value for money in the road sector. A big proportion of future oil revenues will surely be spent on the transport sector.

This makes it even more urgent to improve the governance framework for road construction and maintenance.
The NDP has identified a reduction in fertility as a major strategy.

According to surveys, Ugandan women would like to have fewer children than they currently have. However, 41% of demands for family planning services are currently unmet.

Without a rapid expansion of family planning programs, Uganda will not be able to replicate the impressive growth rates in the Asian countries mentioned earlier.

What is needed, therefore, is a commitment on the part of government to increase its share in procurement of contraceptives, which is currently less than 10% of national requirements.

Equally important is increased focus on girls’ education and improvement in reproductive health, to address the shortfalls against the MDG indicators mentioned earlier.

Lastly, Mr. President, as demonstrated over the last 23 years, a stable political environment is the single most important factor for a good business climate.

Political upheaval is very bad for investment and doing business, as we have recently witnessed in Kenya. In turn, respect for the rule of law and human rights is essential to guarantee political stability.

Second: government needs to prioritize public spending while ensuring that Uganda’s labor force is healthy and educated.

Addressing the challenge of providing quality services to the growing Ugandan population necessitates prudent and efficient use of Uganda’s limited financial resources. Achieving value for money is therefore essential.

In addition to curbing waste and inefficiencies the government should prioritize public spending. Development partners share the concern of Uganda’s civil society and media about the high and increasing levels of spending on government’s administrative structures.

These are resources that could otherwise be invested in infrastructure and on providing basic education, health care and clean drinking water to the poor.

The sharp increase in the number of districts in recent years (and continued plans for new ones), diverts both human and financial resources from existing districts and undermines the capacity of local governments to effectively deliver services.

Starting at 36 districts, 80 districts last year, and now 91 districts: who can make a serious case that this expansion of the number of districts is good for service delivery?

I now turn to concrete suggestions to strengthen the capacity of the Ugandan state.

An effective and accountable state is needed to guarantee value for money in service delivery by tackling corruption, waste and inefficiencies. Oil will provide much of the resources needed to increase public and private investment in future years.

However, if these investments are to yield lasting results, the management of public finances has to improve.

While we recognize the Government of Uganda’s commitment to the value for money agenda, much more needs to be done. The NDP identifies public sector management and administration as the number one binding constraint to achieving Uganda’s development objectives.

The remaining gaps in some of the fundamental aspects of public financial management need urgent attention in order to improve spending capacity and efficiency.

For example, zero tolerance towards non-adherence to the Commitment Control Systems, or the circumvention of IFMIS, is required to address the long standing abuse of Public Financial Management (PFM) systems.

Making sure basic PFM systems work requires in the first place fundamental behavioral change. This change can only be brought about by the Government and each one of you sitting here.

Weak public sector management and administration is one of the main causes of absenteeism of teachers and health workers. This waste of public resources should not be allowed to continue.

Action should be taken to address absenteeism. This should include not only positive incentives, but also strong disciplinary measures.
Lastly, Mr. President, the Government of Uganda has to start fighting corruption seriously.

The undeniable lack of government action to follow up on cases of grand corruption is a key area of development partner concern. Policies, laws and institutions are in place, but enforcement is limited, creating a culture of impunity.

Offenders should be sanctioned, money should be recovered and criminal investigations taken forward on key cases. We commend MoFPED on the recent initiative to develop an Action Plan for follow-up on CHOGM, which we hope will lead to concrete action being taken in the near future.

The Government’s failure to act on high level corruption will have implications, and donors under the Joint Budget Support Framework are currently considering a range of actions.

This may include withholding disbursements, reductions in aid, or re-programming away from direct budget support etc. These were all options discussed and agreed to with the Government in the 2007/08 budget appraisal.

In conclusion, Your Excellency, we would like to assure the government of Uganda that Development Cooperation will increasingly be a results-oriented partnership, where development partners can demonstrate to their own taxpayers that money is well spent.

We are committed to improving the predictability of aid and to working with Government to address the serious challenges Uganda faces to consolidate past gains and achieve lasting results for the people of Uganda.

Thank you for your attention.

Kundhavi Kadiresan
World Bank Country Manager
Chair, Local Development Partners’ Group
Co-Chair, Joint Budget Support Framework Policy Committee

President Museveni’s NRM occupation government is starting to feel the cost of keeping the kingdom of Buganda in a virtual state of emergency. Since early September 2009, Museveni has spent billions of Uganda Shillings in resources to destabilize Kabaka Mutebi, monitor and block Baganda radio and phone communications, block unfriendly Internet addresses, fund pro-Region Tier forces in Mmengo and redeploy at least 65% of all Uganda’s police and army in Buganda.  The panic expenditure, together with the accompanying graft by those managing the funds has left the occupation NRM government in a financial fix. To cope, Museveni is reportedly, raiding certain government institutions, where aid donors cannot easily trace misuse of funds.

Our source in Uganda’s ministry of Finance has told us that the list of organizations that the NRM government is raiding include Bank of Uganda (BOU), National Social Secrity Fund (NSSF), NAADS and the President’s patriotism development fund. The source said: “BOU is easy because, the governor, Emmanuel Mutebire and the secretary to treasury, Chris Kassami are both veteran embezzlers. And they now have younger leutenants in Naome Nassasira and Keith Muhakanizi to oversee the thefts. The NSSF could have been more complicated because it has been in the papers too much. That is why they appointed a brand new board, with a solid number of thieves, to ensure full cooperation when government raids the organization. Even UPE will not be spared. There are plans to reallocate huge sums of money from students and combine those moneys with billions from Museveni’s patriotism development fund  to massively recruit ‘patriotic’ teachers as a backbone of a new spy network within Buganda. The reason they are looking at NAADS is because they have successfully used it in the past to bribe LCs and settle Balaalo and other foreigners in Buganda, without donor interference.”

On a related note, our ministry of Finance source points out that at least 30-40% of the money being spent to maintain the Buganda occupation is stolen by the implementers and NRM politicians. According the the source: “Because of the secrecy, there is no accountability and everyone involved in the illegal financial raids make sure to keep some. Even Museveni and his family are actively chasing the patriotism fund. It is like everyone is trying to get what they can before the next Baganda riots break out. “

In an exclusive communication to Buganda Post, a group of Baganda professionals based in Europe have announced that, they are constituting what they called a virtual court to start collecting evidence against Buganda occupiers and their collaborators. They call the virtual court, which includes both lawyers and other professionals,  Embuga Mununula (from effort to rescue Buganda). The members of Embuga Mununula claim that they have started the initiative in the name of their Kabaka although, obviously, he did not personally instruct them. They argue that, since Buganda is occupied by foreigners and Kabaka Mutebi’s movements are now controlled by a Rwandese mercenary, Kalyekezi Kayihura, their action is consistent with the tradition of fighting against occupation forces.

Among the prominent NRM government officials under investigation are Yoweri Tebaruha Museveni, Gilbert Balibaseka Bukenya, David Tinyefuza, Kahinda Otafiire, Kalyekezi Kayihura, Caleb Akandwanaho and John Nagenda. Over the next several months, evidence will be collected and potential witnesses identified, with a goal of building cases against key members of the occupation force and their collaborators. The applicable law will be a combination of English Law and native Buganda Law. For example, native Buganda Law provides for the death penalty on conviction of  treason and betraying Namulondo but also allows collective punishment, where the convict’s whole family is condemned as traitors.

According to the Embuga Mununula founders, as soon as Baganda gain the capacity administer fair trials and carry out appropriate punishments humanely, speedy open trials and sentencing will start. The group does not predict how long this will take. In fact they say that they are willing to continue building cases for as long as Buganda is under occupation. Even if a suspect dies the Baganda who have suffered through his actions will still want his estate to compensate the victims and, in some cases, members of his family to be punished according to native Buganda Law.

The first batch of high value personalities to be investigated first is shown below:

Elizabeth Musaazi is a daughter of pioneer Muganda politician Ignatius Kangave Musaazi.  Nakku Senkeeto says that she is a granddaughter of Jolly Joe Kiwanuka and a great granddaughter of former treasurer (Muwanika) of Buganda Serwano Kulubya. And Edirisa Kironde claims to be first nephew to former Uganda President Yusuf Kironde Lule. The three are leading the effort to recruit American Baganda into NRM, at Uganda taxpayer expense, to extend Mr. Museveni’s direct political power to America. Sources close to the Uganda state house have told us that Mr. Museveni’s government is still interested in UNAA and Ggwangamujje but they think that their best investment is NRM USA where they can directly control the leaders and the political message.  Some of the NRM USA leaders, including Twaha Bukenya, Edward Wanda and Edirisa Kironde were on the list of alleged Uganda Government spies which was widely circulated on Internet discussion groups in 2007.

In 2008 NRM USA held major event in Washington DC with direct financial and logistical support from Uganda ambassador to USA, Perez Kamunanirwe. This year their event will be at the Marriott Copley Place Hotel in Boston on September 26, 2009 and president Museveni is expected to attend.  A prominent Muganda lawyer in North East USA has told us that it is probably illegal in the US for NRM, a foreign ruling political party, to promote its government policies on US soil. He pointed out that, according to the www.NRMOBoston.com website, their objective is to “shed light on the economic, political and other matters of interest to many Ugandans both in Uganda and in the Diaspora” and expected attendees include “Uganda Government Officials and Policy makers.” The legal expert concluded: “In my humble opinion, what NRM is doing in the USA could well be in contravention of the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA).  And if Baganda victims of NRM policies take this on seriously with the Obama administration, Musaazi’s daughter and her friends could be in serious trouble. They are blindly trying to adopt NRM arrogance here in the USA and that cannot work for long. And, curiously, not single member of the prominent Banyankore or Balaalo family benefiting so much from the NRM rule is involved in this highly risky effort.”

Sources in Mr. Museveni’s state House tell us that from the time of Dan Muliika’s term as Katikkiro President Museveni authorized serious investment in USA organizations controlled by Baganda. He was concerned that if the nationalism which Muliika planted  here in Buganda spread to American and European Baganda, his plans for Buganda could fall apart. Baganda who still believe in Mr. Museveni’s style of democracy for Uganda were in control at the Uganda North American (UNAA) and the plan was to ensure that the organization leadership is dominated by NRMs. The bigger challenge was the Ggwangamujje Baganda who, by definition, focus on Buganda interests.

UNAA Baganda are divided between those who support Mr. Museveni’s regime, those who promote opposition parties (DP, FDC, JEEMA, etc.) and those who do not care about the parties but, like the others, have full faith that the current Ugandan democracy is good enough to work with. Uganda state house believes that at least 85% of UNAA members are Baganda, explaining why Mr. Museveni supports and funds UNAA. The president prefers that his candidates win the UNAA elections but even if they lose, he feels confident that he can manipulate and influence the majority of UNAA members.

Ggwangamujje Baganda reject the current political order in Uganda and insist on Federo or even independence if other Ugandans continue to violate Buganda rights and interests. Their major branches are in Boston, New York/New Jersey and London.  According to NRM sources, Mr. Museveni does not expect to control Ggwangamujje activities but aims are using plants to simply destroy them from within.  Ggwangamujje Boston is by far the largest branch. But some observers also believe that it is the one which Mr. Museveni’s agents have already infiltrated, as shown by the NRM-style atmosphere at its elections two months ago – the elections had to be cancelled. Ggwangamujje NY/NJ is smaller but believed to be the most serious after successfully organizing Ttabamiruka ’07 and Ttabamiruka ’08. As Beti Kamya has said on FM radios several times, she started her current campaign for a new federal style political system for Uganda after “getting enlightened at Ttabamiruka ‘08″. However, the fact that there is no word about Ttabamiruka ’09 up to now has left many Ggwangamujje Baganda all over the world concerned about the health of Ggwangamujje NY/NJ.