When, on September 16, 2009, Museveni invited all Buganda MPs to a Thursday meeting to discuss the impasse regarding Kabaka’s visit to Kayunga, he was considering denying opposition to the visit (see “Museveni May Blame Police and Minister For Bugerere Violence“).   By the time the meeting took place, Museveni had decided to confront the Kabaka and had grown so paranoid that the locked non-NRM Buganda MP’s out.

One source close to president Museveni’s state house has told us:  “Young and rich Balaalo, who fear to lose the billion of shillings they have looted in Uganda had worked through senior members of the Balaalo akazu (secret conclave) Caleb Akandwanaho (Salim Saleh), Janet Museveni and Elly Karuhanga to persuade Museveni to lower the tension with Mmengo. As late as Wednesday afternoon, Museveni considered blaming the brutal actions of Uganda police against Baganda youths in Kayunga on Kayihura’s men.”  However, the Uganda warlord continued to face pressure from strongly anti-Baganda Balaalo and Bayiru like David Tinyefuza, Kale Kayihura, Kahinda Otafiire and others, who wanted the Kabaka arrested.”

The situation was complicated on Wednesday when, Museveni, after 2 years of unsuccessful efforts, managed to get a telephone audience with Ssabasajja Kabaka.  According the Museveni’s own statement, the Kabaka was clearly unimpressed by the extreme importance the Ugandan ruler places on the title, “President of Uganda”. The unfriendly call left Museveni irate but probably did not change his thoughts about calling some type of truce.

The source says, however, that: “President Museveni panicked on Thursday late morning when he got intelligence reports that the violence that started after Kayihura barred Katikkiro Walusimbi from entering Bugerere was spreading to places as far as Masaka.  Even worse, it was being executed by fearless young Baganda, some as young as 13 years, in huge numbers. When he consulted some members of  the kazu, they were also panicking. When he called Janet Museveni, overseas at the time and very angry at the way Baganda had embarrassed her at UNAA, she told him that there was no choice but crash the Baganda rioters.” That is when Museveni made the final decision to stop Kabaka Mutebi.

Museveni formally announced that unless Mmengo held talks with Banyala and CBS radio stopped their negative campaign against the NRM and inciting the people against Police, Kabaka’s visit to Kayunga on Saturday could not take place. Reportedly, the Ugandan warlord did not sleep at all Thursday night but made another critical decision. He ordered that the Kabaka had to be stopped if he left his palace and live bullets were to be used on rioters.

It appears that Kabaka Mutebi’s advisors got wind of Museveni’s genocidal plans early enough to avert the potential bloodshed. By Friday mid-afternoon, the Buganda cabinet had made the decision that talking to Museveni’s person king (Sabanyala) was out of questions and Baganda blood could not be sacrificed to the NRM government, which seemed deranged.  Sources close to Mmengo could not provide more details about what went on in the Buganda cabinet up to the point of the official statement canceling the trip. However, according the Observer Newspaper (www.observer.ug), the wording and timing  of the Mmengo statement was highly influenced by fear that Katikkiro Walusimbi, who is little trusted by nationalist Baganda, could be harmed.

We can report that Museveni was in communication with people who are close to key Buganda government officials throughout the crisis. However, it is not known if any actual communication took place. Also, Museveni planted at least one informer among Mmengo officials, including in the Katikkiro’s convoy that was stopped at Sezibwa (details withheld to protect the sources).

In the meantime, a state of panic has taken root among the Balaalo community in Buganda. For many of them this the first time they came face to face with the prospect that Museveni does not have the capacity to protest them against the thousands of unemployed and angry young Baganda. Evidence of this panic includes the decision by Rwandese Balaalo, assisted by a foreign country, to volunteer to offer over 20 lorries to accompany Kabaka Mutebi to Kayunga. We have also received unconfirmed reports of an unusual number of Balaalo parents taking their children home from boarding schools on Saturday September 12, 2009.

President Museveni ordered the closure of Kabaka’s CBS FM Radio after learning that the organizers of Ssabasajja’s tour of Bugerere had used it so effectively mobilize Baganda.  By Tuesday CBS the information put out on CBS by “commander” Betty Nambooze, the chief organizers of Kabaka’s tour of Bugerere has become so effective that some Mmengo officials were estimating that a few hundred thousand people would accompany Ssabasajja. When Wednesday came, the commitments exploded, especially after rumors spread that Kabaka Mutebi told Museveni off in a phone conversation.

In a clear sign that Museveni was losing control the Banyarwanda community, who are deeply entrenched in Museveni’s intelligence agencies, announced that they support Kabaka’s visit and donated twenty lorries. Similarly, Nubians, Iteso, Basoga and other communities started calling on all their members to accompany Kabaka Mutebi to Bugerere. Even FDC’s Besigye went to CBS FM to challenge Baganda who keep saying “woligwa wendigwa” to prove their commitment by going to Kayunga; promising that he was going himself. Soon Baganda analysts were estimating that about 1 million Baganda and others would be in Kayunga on Saturday.

According to state house sources, after the Kampala riots on Thursday, Museveni was advised by Robert Kabushenga and Temale Mirundi that hell would break lose by Friday if CBS Radio was left to control the news. Museveni instructed the Rwandese chairman of the Broadcasting Council, Godfrey Mutabaazi, to switch off both CBS channels,  88.8 and 89.2. The two FM stations went off the air a little after 5:30 PM on Thursday.

The local press has quoted Buganda’s  information Minister, Medard Lubega Sseggona saying that military officials had forcefully switched off the main mast that is erected at Buziga Hill in Kampala. However, the disconnection would not affect the planned Youth Day Celebrations at Kayunga. The Kayunga celebrations are scheduled for Saturday September 12, 2009.

At the time of posting this report, the organizers had gone to Plan B, using SMS messages to continue taking directions from the Nambooze committee.

There are signs that a still unknown group could be getting training and carrying out terror operations in Buddu county, reportedly in demand for Buganda Federo.  Since January 2009, the group has harassed or killed over 50 people around Kyanamukaaka, Kyesiiga, Kiziba, Mutondo, Bisanje and surrounding areas in Kabaka’s Buddu county.  According to local residents, the group previously dropped leaflets in the area warning area MP and Museveni confidant, Edward Sekandi, to resign as MP and speaker of parliament if he cannot support Federo for Buganda. According to reports, the victims tend to be either Banyankore or Banyarwanda, even though some use Kiganda names.

The affected areas are generally along the Masaka to Mutukula road.  Since 2006, these areas have reportedly seen an influx of money, believed to be from either Uganda government or Rwandese sources, to enable Banyarwanda to buy huge pieces of local land. In mid 2008, violence broke out when a Rwandese national bought 1.5 square miles of settled land from a Muganda and started evicting Baganda bibanja (plot) holders, making them homeless. There is a high level of frustration and anger among Baganda, especially unemployed youths, about what they see as neglect and victimization by Mr. Museveni’s government in favor of foreigners.

Both the commander of Uganda police, Kale Kayihura, himself a Munyarwanda, and Edward Sekandi, the area MP, told the government New Vision newspaper on July 10, 2009 that the night killings are the work of criminal thugs. However, neither of them could explain why in many cases the killers, who mostly use machetes (pangas) leave behind easy to carry expensive property.

According to a source close to Mr. Museveni’s state house, the president first received intelligence reports over 1 year ago that Baganda might start an insurgency against government.  The source claimed: “Except if he is pretending and it is his own terror operation, president Museveni seems to be confused about how to face Baganda armed groups on Buganda territory. Given the extreme levels of corruption in the security organizations the intelligence reaching the President, especially about the loyalty of Baganda NRMs is often faulty and misleading. For example, it appears that many local Baganda in Masaka have a lot of information, which they are not sharing with the local DISO or police because they strongly disagree with Museveni on land and Kabaka issues. Some of these NRM officials are the ones who call Mambo Baado on CBS Radio and say, ‘Tukooye abasajja!’ (‘We are fed up with these people!’). Others also feel that Museveni is going and they now want to keep their distance”.

A  New York based Muganda analyst and thought leader thinks that Baganda need more information before getting excited about this so called Baganda insurgency for Federo. He explained: “First, the tactic of terrorizing civilians in the area which is supposed to benefits from a new war has Museveni’s fingerprints all over. Many Luwero veterans have publicly admitted that the NRA used staged ‘Obote murders’ in Bulemeezi and north Kyadondo to recruit unsuspecting relatives to fight for Museveni. Therefore, I would not be shocked if this is an NRM group created to terrorize Baganda in Buddu and to trap potential volunteers. But even if it is not Museveni, one still has to ask if this could not be Acholis, Rwandese or anti-Museveni Balaalo trying to once again ‘use’ Baganda as stepping stones.”

The analyst added: “Remember that in 1995 Museveni started a policy of cutting down all forests in Buganda, even Mabira. The job to carry out the policy was assigned to Bakiga to be supervised by Kahinda Otafiire and Salim Saleh. Most Ugandans mistakenly believed that the objective was just to make money from timber. Yes, Kahinda Otafiire, Saleh and even Mrs. Janet Museveni made millions of dollars from timber but to Yoweri Museveni, the key thing was to wipe out all possible training grounds for anti-NRM forces in Buganda. Why did Museveni leave the forests in southern Buddu untouched? If he did it intentionally for future covert operations or as a possible escape route, then there is a 75% chance that the Buddu insurgency is a Museveni ‘kiwaani’ (fake) to terrorize Baganda and trap his potential enemies. If it is not, we will find out soon enough.”

During a joint press conference with Burundi president Pierre Nkurunziiza on May 29, 2009, president Museveni repeated that he had a secret meeting with Katikkiro JB Walusimbi of Buganda where the two agreed to take the draft Land Act of 2009 to parliament for debate. The Buganda Lukiiko had on May 11, 2009, passed a resolution that the proposed new land law was unacceptable to Buganda. It was in response to the resolution that Mr. Museveni first claimed that he had a secret agreement with Mr. Walusimbi. The Uganda president has never explained the legal basis of his negotiations or agreements with the Katikkiro, since he (the president) has many times told the nation that Mmengo is a cultural non-government organization (NGO) without political power.

A source close to Uganda’s state house has exclusively told us in an email that president Museveni and his team are now trying to work out new plan on Buganda after getting disappointed by Katikkiro JB Walusimbi. And that their plan includes undermining Walusimbi so he can be replaced quickly. According to the sources: “The Katikkiro set very high expectations for Mr. Museveni and his people when he took the office. He assured them that he could bring order in Mmengo, which Sendaula was not strong enough to do. The problem is that he is now seen as much weaker and less reliable than any Katikkiro since Kabaka Mutebi assumed Namulondo.  Talina lugendo [‘His journey is over’] with state house because Mr. Museveni prefers a strong enemy who he can spy on to get useful intelligence than a weak friend, who people tell very little. Don’t be surprised to hear Museveni continue to make Walusimbi look bad – he wants him to go.”

During the May 22, 2009 press conference, Mr. Museveni also announced that he has a team ready to negotiate with Mmengo on Federo and other Buganda demands. In what some analysts have called a “carrot and stick” style, Mr. Museveni has over the last 15 years called Mmengo a cultural organization which is illegally getting involved into politics, while at the same time calling them to discuss their political demands.   On Monday April 20, 2009, Katikkiro Walusimbi informed the Buganda Lukiiko that he had chosen a committee of 10 to represent Buganda in the negotiations with Mr. Museveni’s government. Owek. Walusimbi and Rwandese Higiro Semajege would lead the committee, with Apollo Makubuya and Charles Peter Mayiga, the two Mmengo officials who, with John Katende and former Katikkiro Mulwaanyamuli Semwogerere accepted Regional Tier deal from Museveni. Kabaka and Baganda rejected it, causing Mulwaanyamuli to be fired.

One New York based Muganda analyst says: “Museveni is playing with Mmengo to buy time, and expecting that with time so much of Buganda will be taken over by foreigners that Mmengo will have to accept whatever they are offered. First, he set up a legal system where Mmengo can never get what it wants even if he says yes to them. Then he is his flooding Buganda with Balaalo, Sudanese and others to where the population is now over 60% foreign. And if Mmengo keeps trusting this man, by the time the so called talks end in 2020 Baganda may be 15%, and no one will care who a Muganda is. One way out I see is for Ssabasajja to do a complete modernization of the Mmengo system so that it can deal with Buganda challenges without depending on the abilities of a single individual. And he cannot do this with the same people who are running Mmengo 1960’s style today.  If that does not happen, the only other thing I think ordinary Baganda have done in history is to take things in their hands and save their Kabaka, Namulondo and nation.” 

In June 2008 I asked one of Buganda’s best strategic thinkers today the following question: “Given how things work with African, how can Buganda be taken seriously when it does not have an army?”. He gave me a reply that left me with mixed feelings of confusion and curiosity. He said, “You are mistaken. Buganda has an army, more disciplined and ready than Museveni’s UPDF or presidential guard (PGB). They are trained, they understand Buganda’s enemies from the inside and they are angry. The only missing piece is a serious Katikkiro to show them direction.”

After three months of investigation, it appears that former professor’s analysis was right on the money.  Actually a huge majority of Baganda in Museveni’s UPDF can convert to Buganda Defense Forces (BDF) overnight without much persuasion. Because the UPDF is not a professional army, the Baganda in it have received some of the best training but face excessive discrimination and most of them, like other Baganda youths, are very loyal to Kabaka. They are frustrated and, when Museveni’s system starts crumbling, they are willing to fight for a new order where Buganda is free to decide her future. And, after the Museveni nightmare, they are unwilling to follow the leadership of another smooth talking non-Muganda commander. Besigye is seen as no different than Museveni.

Probably the most educative source of information during my investigation was the series of interviews that I had with an active senior Muganda UPDF officer and close family friend. He explained that the UPDF is not a professional army, say like Kenya’s, because Museveni intentionally structured it to avoid a military coup. “And he succeeded because we do not have officer messes, a modern commissary, sports clubs or other things where officers or men can get to know and trust each other and their commanders. There is a total lack of trust among officers and men, made worse by the excessive tribalism and corruption by westerners and Banyarwanda who are mostly interested in stealing money and running businesses. That is why you can see a 25 year old Second Lieutenant from Nyabushozi with a huge house and several cars while a Colonel from Buganda or the North travels by boda boda.”  A military coup is nearly impossible because there is no real command-and-control in the UPDF and many important decisions are based on rumors and even advice from witch doctors.

The senior UPDF officers revealed that even Museveni is not sure of the UPDF force size because he has allowed the enlistment of ghost soldiers and foreigners for so many years. However, the officer  estimated that if one counts both active and retired combatants the effective number is about 100,000, with at least 20,000 of them being Baganda proper.  And there are many quality Baganda commissioned and non-commissioned officers since “most of us don’t have the opportunities to be corrupt and try to advance through training while most westerners think that it interrupts with their business activities.” Apparently there are also thousands of Baganda veterans who have served under a command and who would be ready to contribute when activated. Many of these, now taxis drivers, boda boda drivers, market vendors and artisans are very bitter about the way Museveni and his people have cheated Buganda and mistreated Kabaka Mutebi.

On who would command the so called Buganda Defense Forces or BDF, the senior military man said: “It is much simpler than you think. These nearly 10,000 or so Baganda fighters would follow any Muganda who has charisma so long as it is clear that the individual is loyal to Kabaka and has Buganda’s interest at heart. Baganda in the UPDF found out much earlier than the rest of you that Uganda is a failed state, after Museveni could not guarantee them salaries. We just don’t know what to do when Mmengo is as corrupt as Nakasero. If there is a Katikkiro who is 100% loyal to Kabaka and has the brains to understand the situation as well as show capacity to be a commander, we can do the rest. Buganda is our only home and the rest of the UPDF is too disorganized to be a problem for us. Also remember that our friends from Acholi, Busoga, Teso or Lango now know that despite the current corruption and cowardice in Mmengo ordinary Baganda are no longer cowards.”

The military veteran, who aspires to retire in the BDF, made one other interesting observation: “Remember that a band of Banyarwanda, who had a strong cause, took NRA equipment 400 Kms to hostile Hutu-led Rwanda and took power. Why should better trained Baganda who are already in very friendly home territory equipped with Ugandan arms stockpiles in Kyadondo, Busiro, Buddu, Buwekula and Buluuli and Bulemeezi not have it even easier. You see, as Uganda continues to fail, our cause to save Buganda and to never allow outsiders to terrorize us becomes stronger. The only thing missing is a leader in Mmengo who has the natural intelligence and patriotism of Muliika as well as the sophistication to assure Buganda that he is 100% obedient to Kabaka. If such serious leadership exists under Kabaka when things start to fall apart Okwonko style, a new BDF could take shape overnight and bring immediate order in the 18 counties of Buganda.”

According to Uganda’s Daily Monitor newspaper of July 23, 2006, the UPDF’s David Tinyefuza has defended the arrests and continued detention of three Buganda kingdom officials beyond the 48-hour period in which all suspects are supposed to be released or charged in court. The paper reports that Tinyefuza, Mr. Museveni’s Coordinator of Intelligence Services, dismissed the public outcry over the continued detention of the suspects by saying that investigating terrorism-related crimes was complex and that under such circumstances, “some laws can even be suspended”. The last time laws were officially suspended to suppress Buganda’s political aspirations was during the 1966 “state of emergency in Buganda”.

The Buganda officials, Mr. Peter Mayiga, Mr. Medard Lubega Ssegona and Ms. Betty Nambooze, were arrested over the weekend and subsequently charged with charges of inciting violence, promoting war, sectarianism and terrorism. The Monitor also reports that Tinyefuza claims that Buganda, like the rest of the colonial creations all over Africa is a haphazard placement of peoples with different cultures and linguistic characteristics, albeit related in the general sense. Within hours of the arrest of its officials, the Buganda government established a Buganda Emergency Response Committee (BERC), which has issued two press releases to update Baganda and their friends. Buganda Post (www.bugandapost.com) will has and will continue to reproduce the BERC’s press releases as they become available.