President Museveni’s propaganda team were wise to bar all Uganda TV stations from broadcasting the proceedings at the NRM’s independence day celebrations on October 9, 2009 at Kololo Airstrip.  That is because, this year’s ceremony saw the smallest crowd of ordinary Ugandans in the 47 years since the British granted independence to Uganda on October 9, 2009. Leaving out the many security or government officials and about 60 boda boda’s, approximately 900 ordinary people attended. Notably, even with this small crowd, the majority wore yellow NRM party tee shirts which were given out free in poor areas to entice people to come to the event.

Conspicuously absent were foreign dignitaries from Libya and neighboring countries. Even the so called cultural leaders, who Museveni supports financially, stayed home – Omukama of Toro, Omukama of Bunyoro, Kyabazinga of Busoga, Omorimor of Teso and Rwot of Acholi. The only non-government VIPs present were a few diplomats accredited to Uganda, junior officials from Kenya, Tanzania and Southern Sudan plus Mr. Museveni’s own Ssabaluri Mwogeza Butamanya (coincidentally, it literally translates to  ”the one who speaks with ignorance”) and Sabanyala Kimeze.

State House Panic and Propaganda Plan

On October 7, 2009, Mr. Museveni’s statehouse received reliable information that over 10,000 people had greeted Kabaka Mutebi in Mityana (Ssingo county), on his way to the Buganda independence event in Mubende, Buwekula county. They knew right away that Kabaka’s crowds could embarrass Museveni at the Uganda independence celebrations on the 9th. So, they turned their attention to controlling the news about Kabaka Mutebi’s activities.

According to our sources in Mr. Meseveni’s ISO, the plan which was hatched by Tamale Mirundi, Robert Kobushenga, Kabakumba Matsiko and a certain Mafabi included 5 main elements: (a) Minimize the crowd in any pictures of Kabaka Mutebi’s crowds if shown in government newspapers. (b) Use physical barriers to force the crowd at Kololo into a relatively small but longish area just below Upper Kololo Terrace road so that the numbers can look big in photos taken from a low angle; (c) Have Mr. Museveni enter the ceremonies through the crowd area, so that we can take photos showing many people around the president, (d) force all major media outlets to broadcast the events at Kololo, using a single audio/video feed from the government’s Uganda Broadcasting Corporation (UBC), and (e) strengthen enforcement of the rules which Godfrey Mutabazi had placed on radio stations, barring any praise of Kabaka or Buganda.

The Monitor Does Not Cooperate

On October 8 and 9, New Vision and Bukedde reported on Kabaka’s tour of Buwekula but omitted any mention of Buganda Independence celebrations, only referring to bulungi bwa nsi (national service) but without translating it to English. Also, they have avoided any picture which show the huge crowds that the Kabaka attracted in Mubende or Mityana. The crowd at the main Mubende celebrations was approximately 25,000 people.

In a sign that the Aga Khan’s The Monitor newspaper editors may be starting to rethink their anti-Buganda sentiments, they defied Museveni and published a photo showing Kabaka Mutebi with thousands of his subjects jubilating around him. Furthermore, they published parts of the Kabaka’s tough “47 Years Wasted” speech, although with incorrect translation in some parts (see “Kabaka Mutebi Disowns Katikkiro’s Apologetic Tone“).

Ghost NRM Independence Day Celebrations

On October 9, Mr. Museveni’s worst fears came to pass. Despite the efforts of his propaganda people, the 900 or so crowd was to small for anyone to ignore. However, state house forced WBS TV, NTV, and NBS to suspend regularly scheduled programming and transmit the UBC TV feed from Kololo live for over 5 hours. And the UBC camera were continuously glued on the marching troops and the VIPs, skipping the miserable crowd. And in a sign that Museveni is losing confidence, he gave his shortest independence day speech ever even though the event lasted from 10:00AM to 3:30 AM.

Uncharacteristically, Museveni read his independence day speech strictly from the script, without any of his trademark long strays to abuse or threaten Baganda, aid donors and others. Also, although he had been fully briefed about Kabaka Mutebi’s statement that Buganda has gained nothing out of 47 years of independence, the Uganda warlord did not mention the subject at all (see “Kabaka Mutebi Disowns Katikkiro’s Apologetic Tone“).

Museveni’s speech included nothing he has not said over the last few years.

• He boasted of his record on education and raised eyebrows when he interpreted the rampant unemployment in Uganda as a sign of his successes, saying: “We no longer have to be frustrated by these people who don’t want to work. You find a problem person somewhere, you act, get rid of that person and get another one because they are many here now.”
• He pledged, as he has done numerous since 1986, that he will fight corruption. But immediately warned that the war on corruption, which is now much worse now than in 1986, will not be won overnight but through a protracted struggle. This time, he spared judges and the police and blamed accountants, auditors and accounting officers for the persistent corruption. However, he promised his outwardly bored audience that he has new army of young “clean” accountants and auditor to lead the war on graft. He did not mention where the got their education or earned their professional experience.
• He made the “obvious” observation that recent oil discoveries would increase self-reliance and make Uganda less dependent on foreign aid.
• Mr. Museveni (once again) revealed that problem of theft of drugs is a serious problem in the health sector. He did not mention the status of the corruption charges against his ministers and NRM stalwarts Michael Mukula and Jim Muwhezi.

Museveni’s Colonel’s on Empty Stomachs

The otherwise dull event could not end without typical Ugandan breakdown. The man in charge of the parade at the very long ceremonies, UPDF’s Col. Peter Ekweru, fainted and fell on his face due to hunger and exhaustion. Sources could not confirm how a whole colonel could command an important national parade on a empty stomach.

Barak Obama has just ended a trip to Europe and Africa, which included an address to Ghana’s parliament. Here, he laid out his agenda and expectations for African nations. Most important was the development of democratic and transparent governments throughout the continent. To this end, the United States will put emphasis on ending long standing conflicts through more aggressive diplomatic measures than those practiced by the Bush and Clinton administration.

The White House is going to appoint a special envoy to central Africa to investigate the problems of eastern Congo because they believe that the future stability of the region is dependent on one of its largest countries. Senior administration officials said that the US believes that the primary problems in eastern Congo are foreign agents, such as the rebel groups, the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Rwanda and the Lord’s Resistance Army in Uganda. Plus the governments of Uganda and Rwanda which are profiting from keeping the region destabilized.

The United States interest in the region is not purely selfless. The Atlantic Ocean waters off Congo and Angola are a major source of America’s oil imports and the Obama has limited confidence that President Kabila can hold the Democratic Republic of Congo together.

As the end-of year holiday season approaches, ordinary Baganda fear that the 2008 Christmas may be the very worst in recent memory.  It is becoming increasingly difficult to find a 20-30 year old Muganda with O-Level or A-Level qualifications who has job that pays them enough to eat two meals a day, in Mr. Museveni’s Uganda. And the prices of essential items from matooke to transport and cooking oil keep going up. As if all that was not enough, the kyeeyo money (money wired from relatives working abroad) has been reduced to a trickle by the international financial crisis.

In Kampala, the price of meat averages Shs 4,500 ($2.25) per kilo, matooke Shs 6,000 ($3.20) per bunch, cooking oil Shs 20,000 ($10.50) per 5 litres can, Beer Shs 2,000 ($1.50) per bottle, chicken Shs 9,500 ($5) and tilapia fish Shs 8,000 ($4.50). These prices are already crushing for a typical family. What most Baganda fear is that as Christmas approaches, the prices will go even higher, especially if the international financial crisis in America and Europe keeps getting worse. The general expectation is that, as has been the case over the last several years, most of the local and donor money will flow the westerners who hold over 50% of all well paying government, NGO and army jobs.

At least half of all Baganda at home directly or indirectly benefit from kyeeyo money. Unfortunately, the flow of kyeeyo money has already been drastically reduced as a growing number of Baganda working in places like London, Boston, New York and the Middle East lose jobs or get fewer working hours. The situation has been made worse by a spike in the deportation of Baganda from the USA and European countries. Because most of the recent deportees come back with nothing, they instantly turn from being a source of assistance to an expensive financial burden.

Analysis shows that the economic woes which Baganda face are likely to remain for a long time, well beyond the 2008 Christmas. The international financial environment and kyeeyo jobs in North America and Europe are not expected to improve until mid 2009 or later. It could even get worse before it gets better.  And President Museveni’s government cannot be relied on to help because Mr. Museveni’s public position is that we should not be concerned because Uganda is insulated from the international financial crisis. As was the case with batter trade in the 1980s and the whipping of Uganda’s army by the Rwandese in Congo, he is expected not to accept that there is a real problem until everything gets out of control.